I Don't Do Memes, But...

The Post-Trump Iran Deal

Don't look now, but our allies in the Iran nuke deal just took steps to ignore the President of United States of America.

If I understand this correctly, France, Britain and Germany will be actively working to undermine U.S. sanctions.

GOP GOTV Better Be On Hyperdrive in 2020

Demography is usually a dry discipline that few find attractive, let alone riveting. But the folks at Pew have done some work that should garner a fair amount of attention from electoral handicappers.

...this strong growth among minority populations means that a third of eligible voters will be nonwhite in 2020, up from about a quarter in 2000. This increase is at least partially linked to immigration and naturalization patterns: One-in-ten eligible voters in the 2020 election will have been born outside the U.S., the highest share since at least 1970.

Even with energetic GOTV efforts by Republicans in 2018, they lost 40 seats in the House. Add in a growing distaste for President Trump and the changing demographics of potential voters and I think RNC chair Ronna McDaniel must be losing sleep. 

(On the plus side, if Mr. Trump is deposed, Ms. McDaniel can go back to using her maiden name - Romney. Uncle Mitt will be pleased.)

But wait! I hear someone object. There's still a white majority of all potential voters. That's true, but keep in mind: more partisan voters are Democrats (35%) than Republican (25%).

Perhaps Ms. McDaniel isn't the only Republican who should have insomnia.

Prison Voice Prints: Will They Include Defense Attorneys, Too?

Prisons are now adopting technology to capture voice prints of prisoners, sometimes using coercive means to do so.

As is the case with any government program to acquire personal information, the potential for abuse is there.

...civil liberties advocates argue that the biometric buildup has been neither transparent nor consensual. Some jurisdictions, for example, limit incarcerated people’s phone access if they refuse to enroll in the voice recognition system, while others enroll incarcerated people without their knowledge. Once the data exists, they note, it could potentially be used by other agencies, without any say from the public.

This Day in History" THomas Jefferson's Library

After capturing Washington, D.C. in 1814, the British burned the U.S. Capitol, destroying the Library of Congress and its 3,000-volume collection. Thomas Jefferson, in retirement at Monticello, offered to sell his personal library to the Library Committee of Congress in order to rebuild the collection of the Congressional Library.

Congress appropriated the funding and on this date in 1815 President James Madison signed the bill. Twice as large as the original Library of Congress destroyed by the British, the Jefferson collection included a range of topics beyond the first collection's scope. As Jefferson said,

“I do not know that it contains any branch of science which Congress would wish to exclude from their collection; there is, in fact, no subject to which a Member of Congress may not have occasion to refer.”

Nowadays, we might be more accurate if we replace "subject" with "lobbyist."

Update: We the People Will Build the Wall GoFundMe

Brian Kolfage's sketchy fundraiser to "build the wall" is stagnant at about $20 million, but since Kolfage has announced the donations will be diverted to a not-for-profit instead of actual construction, GoFundMe has announced refunds will begin in 90 days.

Today in History

John James Audubon, naturalist and artist famous for his drawings and paintings of North American birds, died at his home in New York City on January 27, 1851. He was sixty-five years old.

"It Never Happened" A Brief Guide to Trump:Russia Contacts

"It never happened," (Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks) said. "There was no communication between the campaign and any foreign entity during the campaign."

Working from "New York Times reporting, documents submitted to Congress, and court records and accusations related to the special counsel," The Times has assembled a handy graphic detailing which Trump campaign official had contacts with Russian assets during the campaign. It's a nice piece of  graphic design and stunning in its scope. 

More than 100 Trump:Russia Contacts

First They Came for the Journalists

We don't know what happened after that.

One of the most insidious things Donald Trump has done to America is deny the legitimacy of journalism and demean its practitioners. A chief executive who defaults to attacks on media rather than responding to content serves only self-interest, not the national interest. And the words of the President have real power: four American journalists were murdered last June in Maryland by a man with longstanding grudges against the newspaper. Did Mr. Trump's anti-press rhetoric embolden Jarrod Ramos to shotgun those reporters? We can't know, but we can be certain it didn't discourage him.

Another assault on our ability to learn about the world is the rise of social media and its shocking vulnerability to manipulation by inimical parties. The fact that a foreign adversary managed to determine the outcome of the 2016 presidential election should have stimulated a national consensus and call for retaliation - but the excellent reporting from actual journalists that uncovered Russia's crucial role in undermining our election was quickly diluted by social media denials and charges of "fake news" from the man who benefited most from that subversion. 

And then yesterday nearly 1,000 reporters from numerous outlets were laid off. National and local resources were severely impacted, diminishing the public's ability to know what's happening next door, in the state capitol and in DC.

Journalism, the only private sector industry explicitly protected by the Constitution, is under duress - and it's suffering.

Comes now some fresh voices in DC. At least one member of the House's freshman class has addressed the issue - and offered a solution. It's very early in the conversation, but the conversation has definitely begun. Let's keep an ear open for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She may be a newcomer to Congress but she's gotten there with ideas.

Why Arresting Roger Stone Was the Right Thing to Do

As Ben Wittes explains

Law enforcement simply does not hand a summons to someone who threatens to kill a witness and trust that person to act responsibly with it.  No conscientious prosecutor would think a summons appropriate there, or think that a threat to kill a witness is simply what targets of grand jury investigations routinely do.

If Mr. Stone does as he promised Tucker Carlson and fights the charges in open court,  we may learn things the Trump legal team would rather we didn't. In any event, we're off to a dramatic start.

#TrumpShutdown May Have Cost GOP 2020

I am so glad we've ended the #TrumpShutdown. The havoc this numbskull move created and the damage it inflicted on Americans will be long-lasting and significant. The numbers we use to measure our economy may not shift much, but perhaps that's more a comment on the insensitivity of those measures to the personal effects of missing paychecks for a  month. Federal workers need their back pay as quickly as the checks can be written. The next obvious - and compassionate - move by government is to make those millions of government contractors whole, too. They were also hostages to the President's vanity.

So let's assume the Congress and the White House reach some accomodation in the next 21 days that prevents further imprudent behavior by the President and keeps government running. That won't include "the wall," of course, but some symbolic victory will have to be part of the final arrangement to appease the President's base, a vital political consideration for the Trump 2020 campaign.

But I'm wondering now if the #TrumpShutdown hasn't already cost the President re-election? This is a man, after all, who lost the popular vote in 2016, has been shadowed by the Mueller probe's relentless indictments and imprisonments, has publically sided with our adversaries, has shambled from one meaningless international gesture (moving our embassy to Jerusalem) to another (that hollow deal with North Korea) and generally behaved in a manner entirely inconsistent with the gravitas of his office.

And now the #TrumpShutdown has exposed his administration's indifference to the lives of Americans. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross's comments about furloughed workers getting loans and the President's childlike faith in the generosity of grocery stores perfectly distill the elitist nature of this Presidency. Republicans have long had to deal with charges of siding with big business over private citizens. The last 35 days have made the disconnect between the millionaires and billionaires in the highest levels of government and the citizens they purportedly serve even more dramatic.

As the economic impacts of the #TrumpShutdown reverberate in the coming months, Democrats will be certain to emphasize that disconnect even more. That's a powerful advantage they'll be certain to exploit. It's not difficult to see Donald Trump as the first President since G. H. W. Bush to serve a single term.

"Interstellar" - Bad Movie, Great Physics

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2019/01/25/black-hole-portal-dimension/#.XExlQGRlA0M

Gun Ownership Tied to Spiking Kid Suicide Rates

A public health problem we can't seem to address. Or even study.

Siegel and his team took state-by-state data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on gun ownership from 2004. The CDC has not done a study on gun ownership by state since then.

“This study demonstrates that the strongest single predictor of a state’s youth suicide rate is the prevalence of household gun ownership in that state.” 

I KNEW This Seemed Familiar

Something about the President holding federal employees hostage in order to get a few billion dollars has nagged  at me for a few days. Something about threatening a third party to influence a decision had a deja vu quality I couldn't shake.

And then I realized where I'd seen it before:

Dark Coffee

Mr. Trump Just Put Amnesty on the Table

President Coulter isn't going to like this.

This, Too.

Annie Don't Like It

Bad news for Mr. Trump's wall "deal." The President doesn't like it.

This.

Happy Birthday, Edgar Allan Poe

Still one of the greatest writers in the English language.

For the moon never beams without bringing me dreams
Of the beautiful Annabel Lee;
And the stars never rise but I see the bright eyes
Of the beautiful Annabel Lee;
And so, all the night-tide, I lie down by the side
Of my darling, my darling, my life and my bride
In her sepulchre there by the sea — 
In her tomb by the side of the sea.

I Don't Get the Buzzfeed Buzz

OK, I think I see the attraction to Buzzfeed's story about Michael Cohen claiming he committed perjury at the direction of President Trump.  By bringing the Special Counsel's Office into the mix Buzzfeed adds a layer of authenticity to previously known facts.

But so what? We already knew about Mr. Trump's involvement. Remember the SCO's December 2018 filing for Cohen's sentencing?

The defendant’s false statements obscured the fact that the Moscow Project was a lucrative business opportunity that sought, and likely required, the assistance of the Russian government. If the project was completed, the Company could have received hundreds of millions of dollars from Russian sources in licensing fees and other revenues. The fact that Cohen continued to work on
the project and discuss it with Individual 1 well into the campaign was material to the ongoing
congressional and SCO investigations, particularly because it occurred at a time of sustained
efforts by the Russian government to interfere with the U.S. presidential election.(emphasis added)

 So do I believe the facts in Buzzfeed's story. Of course. Those aren't new. Am I impressed that the SCO's role is highlighted? No, we've already seen it displayed in court documents. Do I understand the uproar over the Buzzfeed story? Not at all. 

2020 Primary Challenges

I expect Chris Christie to do the same.

Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is acting a lot like a guy who wants to run against Donald Trump in 2020 — and the president's reelection team is taking notice.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/18/larry-hogan-donald-trump-2020-election-1110535

"All the Best People"

Hogan Gidley looks like the kid who failed the audition for Stranger Things.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/white-house-spokesman-refuses-deny-buzzfeed-story-fox-news/

In Which David Limbaugh Helpfully Provides a List of Trumpish Talking Points

I repeat: It is border security they oppose, as evidenced by their opposition to Kate's Law, their reprehensible support for sanctuary cities, their callous disregard for criminal elements, in whatever percentages, illegally crossing our borders, their jaw-dropping opposition to the deportation of MS-13 gang members and other violent criminals, their demonization of ICE, their history of obstructing border enforcement, their secret affinity for open borders because increasing illegal immigration leads to an endless new supply of future Democratic voters, and their endless game-playing over a wall, including their gleeful eagerness to keep their precious federal government shut down just so they can demagogue the issue and humiliate Trump.

Most Un-Self Conscious Tweet of the Day

Almost nobody in the W. H. but me...

Well, of course, sir - except for your unpaid Secret Service detail, a lot of your staff is at home reading Help Wanted ads.

The #TrumpShutdown Speeches Failed

Neither the President's first Oval Office prime time address nor the curiously moribund Democratic response impressed the public. But this polling does make it clear Trump is getting the bulk of the blame for the shutdown.

Applying Logic to Trump

David French is often a compelling conservative thinker. But he's used to dealing with politicians who behave rationally, or at least in their plain self-interest. Those are not qualities anyone should anticipate from the current president. In normal circumstances, this would be perfectly acceptable analysis:

If Trump reopens the government and declares an emergency, he’s actually caving creatively. Erick makes a similar point as Rich Lowry, who tweeted yesterday that “the national emergency isn’t a way to win the shutdown fight; it’s just a way to lose and shift the blame to the courts.” Trump knows that he faces long odds in court. He also knows he can go to his base and say, “I fought harder than anyone for the wall. I declared an emergency. No other Republican would have the guts to take things this far.”

Will Mr. Trump take the "caving creatively" route? Who knows. I do expect the Democrats to maintain their denial of wall funds, if for no other reason than to teach the President what divided government looks like.

In the meantime, 800,000 Americans are effectively unemployed, held hostage by the man who is their ultimate boss. His willingness to sacrifice those citizens is the worst aspect of this entire mess. And the most shameful.

Presidential Popularity

You'd think a guy so dependent on external validation would be more concerned about his escalating unpopularity.

Latest FiveThirtyEight aggregation here: 54% disapproval vs. 41% approval.

Submitted Without Comment

About Half a Billion $$ in Housing Costs Are Due

Zillow reports $400 million in mortgage and rent payments are due this month from federal workers.

“Like Americans in the private sector, many federal employees rely on each and every paycheck to cover critical expenses, including housing,” Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas said in the report. “In many parts of the country, housing affordability is already stretched and a single missed payment can begin the long process toward foreclosure or eviction — which has long-term impacts on an individual’s finances and long-term economic prospects.”

Exit Strategy, Part 1.

It's no accident that Speaker Pelosi has committed to a term of no more than two years as the most powerful Democrat in America. It exactly mirrors the remainder of Donald Trump's first term. Acting as the most powerful woman in the world in opposition to the most powerful man must have been irresistible.

 In a warning sign for the White House, a number of Senate Republicans offered tepid support for the hard-line stance taken by Trump, who is backed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. While many Republicans said they'd continue to support McConnell and Trump for now, it was clear that support won't last indefinitely.

Not One Dime for Rakes

The President today claims to cut off FEMA funds to help Californians ravaged by wildfires. (I say "claims" for obvious reasons.) Evidently he believes forest fires are - and should be - preventable. 

Now, Donald, how do you expect Californians to buy the rakes to clean up their forests without money? And what about your promise?

Historians Never Forget

I'll Never be this Cool

Walter Scott's Killer Remains Imprisoned

Michael Slager shot Walter Scott five times in the back as Scott ran away from a scuffle with the police officer. His attorneys have been trying to have his conviction and sentence reduced, but a federal appeals court was unmoved by their arguments and upheld the lower court's decision.

The defense argument is an appeal to a common justification for police violence:

Franklin-Best argued that her client’s underlying offense should have been the lesser crime of voluntary manslaughter, a killing in the heat of passion. She said Norton’s findings didn’t acknowledge “the ever-present danger that police officers face.”

In addition to being a nakedly self-serving argument, it also fails to acknowledge "the ever-present danger that" black men face from police. 

Trump's First Oval Office Speech

Nice reading of the teleprompter, Mr. Trump. A shame you didn't deliver this speech your first week in office when your party controlled the necessary levers of power.

This Might Save You Some Time Tonight

Press release from POTUS with, I'm guessing, tonight's talking points. Come for the prepared text, stay for the gaffes and ad libs.

https://publicpool.kinja.com/subject-congress-must-do-more-to-address-the-border-cr-1831578910

Another Neo Nazi is Sentenced

Presumably not one of the "very good people" on his side.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ohio-man-gets-nearly-4-year-sentence-beating-black-man-n955961

On This Day in Jazz

And he had one helluva band.

On January 6, 1993, Dizzy Gillespie, the last of the primary originators of Be-Bop jazz, died in Englewood, New Jersey. The trumpeter-composer-bandleader had laid the foundation of modern jazz with pianist Thelonius Monk, drummer Kenny Clarke, guitarist Charlie Christian, and alto saxophonist Charlie “Yardbird” Parker.

Maybe Harry Reid's Last Interview

An interesting profile by one of my favorite journalists, Mark Liebovich.

In some ways, Washington, under Trump, has devolved into the feral state that Reid, in his misanthropic heart, always knew it could become under the right conditions. Politicians are always claiming to be eternal optimists; Reid is no optimist. “I figure, if you’re pessimistic, you’re never disappointed,” he told me.

Something to Watch For Preet Bharara Fans

If you're a fan of Preet Bharara's podcast, Stay Tuned, you may be interested in his first book, too.

ABOUT DOING JUSTICE

By the one-time federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York, an important overview of the way our justice system works, and why the rule of law is essential to our society. Using case histories, personal experiences and his own inviting writing and teaching style, Preet Bharara shows the thought process we need to best achieve truth and justice in our daily lives and within our society.

Obama Staying Busy in His Retirement

Obama can thank "Hamilton" creator Lin-Manuel Miranda for making him a chart star due to the song "One Last Time (44 Remix)," which is a gospel inspired remix of a song from the hit Broadway show.

A Less Violent 2018

Murders in New Orleans dropped last year.  In the "sanctuary city" of Los Angeles violent crime and murder are at 50 year lows. Same for San Francisco. Even famously dangerous Chicago saw a decrease in murders last year.

How is this happening? Well, certainly no credit to federal government. The DOJ under AG Sessions withheld police funds over "sanctuary cities."

These reductions are due to hard work by the local governments. Democrats Mitch Landrieu and LaToya Cantrell of New Orleans, Chicago's Rahm Emanuel, London Breed in San Francisco, and Los Angeles' Eric Garcetti deserve recognition.

Trump and the Wall - Then and Now

Then, talking about Mexico paying for the wall: 

 Donald Trump, in hot water over a report that his charity used donations to cover business-related legal fees, told a campaign rally crowd on Tuesday that “there’s nothing like doing things with other people’s money.” - 9/20/2016 (https://politi.co/2LPVIZD)

Now, insisting on American tax dollars to fund wall construction:

The president is demanding more than $5 billion to build a new wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. House Democrats plan to advance legislation that would reopen key parts of the government but deny Trump any additional money for a wall...  - 1/2/2019 (https://wapo.st/2LOum6c)

 

OMG, He's Still Lying About Tariffs

One more time, Mr. Trump: TARIFFS ARE PAID BY CONSUMERS TO SELLERS.

Tweet from @realDonaldTrump: The United States Treasury has taken in MANY billions of dollars from the Tariffs we are charging China and other countries that have not treated us fairly. In the meantime we are doing well in various Trade Negotiations currently going on. At some point this had to be done!

How Can Any Trust Be Earned?

This is going to end badly, either for the 45th President, the 800,000 furloughed workers, or both.

But consider this: world leaders are watching the President renege on agreements negotiated at his direction, knowing the price of his repudiation of those agreements will be the financial ruin of his employees, and untold damage to the citizens who rely on the services those furloughed workers provide.

Why then would any government on the planet look to the Trump administration for partnership or assistance? We clearly cannot be trusted.

Day 711 of the Trump Occupation

This morning the President of the United States of America tweeted an attack on a fellow Republican and incoming Senator, Mitt Romney (R - UT). Senator-elect Romney published an op-ed in the Washington Post agreeing with many of the President's policies but sharply criticizing his "qualities of character."

The tweet includes a backhanded swipe at former Senator Jeff Flake (R - AZ) while falsely claiming Mr. Trump "won big" in 2016 by margin superior to Senator-elect Romney's.

It's Like He's Not Even Trying

Hold onto your MAGA hat! The President is gearing up for the 2020 election with the eager help of conservative media.

Right wing paper Washington Examiner was handed a list of 205 "accomplishments" by the White House comms shop.

“Together, we are building a safe, strong, and proud America,” said Trump in his new list of “historic results,” provided exclusively to Washington Secrets.

And then about 24 hours later...

Top-notch journalism, Examiner!

So Liz Warren Wants to be President

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D - MA) is the first Democrat to announce her intention to run for the Presidency. On paper she has many of the qualities needed to address the ramshackle economic policies of the current administration - deep knowledge of the banking system, credit policy and a commitment to consumer protections. That's a fairly narrow band of expertise for a serious run at the White House, but she has time to develop her policy positions on other important issues.

I'm afraid, though, that well-developed ideas and proposals won't be sufficient for electoral success. As a nation we react poorly to viable female candidates. It's been said that part of Hillary Clinton's failure in 2016 was her attempt to run a "man-style" campaign. According to this theory, American women haven't yet figured out how to run for the Presidency as a woman.

And then there's bone-deep misogyny that helped the Trump campaign find success. It's going to be tough for any woman to deal with the culture's disdain for smart, determined, successful women. @ConnieSchultz gets it.

Whitaker Should Recuse

The Trump family is under increasing scrutiny. A key figure in the administration, Matt Whitaker, has a choice to make: protect the President or uphold the rule of law.

His position as acting Attorney General unconfirmed by the Senate is already tenuous, and it isn't much of a leap to consider his legal vulnerability if he takes any action to protect the President.

Mr. Whitaker himself is now a fact witness in that investigation and should recuse himself from overseeing it. His refusal to follow the advice of career ethics officials and recuse himself from the Russia probe makes us doubt he will do so here, but he is nonetheless irretrievably compromised.

Trump Has Been Very Good for Rachel Maddow

H/T Erik Wemple.

Here's what I like the most about Maddow's show:

MSNBC is distinguishing itself with reporting about the Trump administration without depending on the Trump administration ... So, where to go for news? Federal courthouses, that's where. Ever since special counsel Robert Mueller started producing indictments and other interesting documents, Maddow has devoured them - all of them. She reads the filings on air, off air and in-between. Often with the help of key reporters on the Mueller beat, she proceeds to detail what's in them and what's not in them. There has been a lot of explaining to do.

As the President continues to decompensate, I expect MSNBC - and Rachel Maddow - to continue to flourish. 

Snarkiest Thing I've Seen All Day

Poor Sarah, how will she finance her smokey eye makeup without a job?

I'm a naturally warm, sympathetic guy, but after two years of her lies and insults, seriously, fuck that. Maybe Trump will give her a cheese tray on her way out the door.

Voice of the Farmer - Mark Boyer

Sorry, Mark, the President of the United States is busy insulting a woman, rage-tweeting about mythical "open borders" and pushing 800,000 federal employees into financial ruin. You'll have to wait your turn for his attention. #TrumpShutdown

Fund the Wall

He's 1.8% of the way toward the goal. At this rate, it'll be another 833 days before reaching $1 billion. That'll be April 13, 2021, or about four months into the next President's term. 

Laura Ingraham Ends Her Radio Show

She's moving on to podcasting (a medium that has the advantage of being exempt from FCC regulations) in order to spend more time with her family.

I'm sure the loss of major advertisers had nothing to do with the decision.

Woody Guthrie's 1943 New Year's Resolutions

"Keep Hoping Machine Running."

National Days

Not surprising to find this is National Hangover Day, but I'm more inclined to observe National Bloody Mary Day. Cheers!

2019 - More of the Same from Trump

Remember when Presidents weren't petty, spiteful puppets of fringe media? Please hurry, Mr. Mueller.