We Knew Cory Booker Would Run

I don't know how well he'll do in the primaries, and sure as hell have no idea if he's even Presidential material (ask me in 15 months). But Senator Booker is almost the perfect antidote to Donald Trump's poisonous narcissism and vindictive responses to perceived threats.

"Before you speak to me about your religion, first show it to me in how you treat other people; before you tell me how much you love your God, show me in how much you love all His children; before you preach to me of your passion for your faith, teach me about it through your compassion for your neighbors. In the end, I'm not as interested in what you have to tell or sell as in how you choose to live and give." -Senator Cory Booker (New Jersey-D)

GOP GOTV Better Be On Hyperdrive in 2020

Demography is usually a dry discipline that few find attractive, let alone riveting. But the folks at Pew have done some work that should garner a fair amount of attention from electoral handicappers.

...this strong growth among minority populations means that a third of eligible voters will be nonwhite in 2020, up from about a quarter in 2000. This increase is at least partially linked to immigration and naturalization patterns: One-in-ten eligible voters in the 2020 election will have been born outside the U.S., the highest share since at least 1970.

Even with energetic GOTV efforts by Republicans in 2018, they lost 40 seats in the House. Add in a growing distaste for President Trump and the changing demographics of potential voters and I think RNC chair Ronna McDaniel must be losing sleep. 

(On the plus side, if Mr. Trump is deposed, Ms. McDaniel can go back to using her maiden name - Romney. Uncle Mitt will be pleased.)

But wait! I hear someone object. There's still a white majority of all potential voters. That's true, but keep in mind: more partisan voters are Democrats (35%) than Republican (25%).

Perhaps Ms. McDaniel isn't the only Republican who should have insomnia.

#TrumpShutdown May Have Cost GOP 2020

I am so glad we've ended the #TrumpShutdown. The havoc this numbskull move created and the damage it inflicted on Americans will be long-lasting and significant. The numbers we use to measure our economy may not shift much, but perhaps that's more a comment on the insensitivity of those measures to the personal effects of missing paychecks for a  month. Federal workers need their back pay as quickly as the checks can be written. The next obvious - and compassionate - move by government is to make those millions of government contractors whole, too. They were also hostages to the President's vanity.

So let's assume the Congress and the White House reach some accomodation in the next 21 days that prevents further imprudent behavior by the President and keeps government running. That won't include "the wall," of course, but some symbolic victory will have to be part of the final arrangement to appease the President's base, a vital political consideration for the Trump 2020 campaign.

But I'm wondering now if the #TrumpShutdown hasn't already cost the President re-election? This is a man, after all, who lost the popular vote in 2016, has been shadowed by the Mueller probe's relentless indictments and imprisonments, has publically sided with our adversaries, has shambled from one meaningless international gesture (moving our embassy to Jerusalem) to another (that hollow deal with North Korea) and generally behaved in a manner entirely inconsistent with the gravitas of his office.

And now the #TrumpShutdown has exposed his administration's indifference to the lives of Americans. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross's comments about furloughed workers getting loans and the President's childlike faith in the generosity of grocery stores perfectly distill the elitist nature of this Presidency. Republicans have long had to deal with charges of siding with big business over private citizens. The last 35 days have made the disconnect between the millionaires and billionaires in the highest levels of government and the citizens they purportedly serve even more dramatic.

As the economic impacts of the #TrumpShutdown reverberate in the coming months, Democrats will be certain to emphasize that disconnect even more. That's a powerful advantage they'll be certain to exploit. It's not difficult to see Donald Trump as the first President since G. H. W. Bush to serve a single term.

2020 Primary Challenges

I expect Chris Christie to do the same.

Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is acting a lot like a guy who wants to run against Donald Trump in 2020 — and the president's reelection team is taking notice.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/18/larry-hogan-donald-trump-2020-election-1110535