Wednesday, January 30, 2019

GOP GOTV Better Be On Hyperdrive in 2020

Demography is usually a dry discipline that few find attractive, let alone riveting. But the folks at Pew have done some work that should garner a fair amount of attention from electoral handicappers.

...this strong growth among minority populations means that a third of eligible voters will be nonwhite in 2020, up from about a quarter in 2000. This increase is at least partially linked to immigration and naturalization patterns: One-in-ten eligible voters in the 2020 election will have been born outside the U.S., the highest share since at least 1970.
Even with energetic GOTV efforts by Republicans in 2018, they lost 40 seats in the House. Add in a growing distaste for President Trump and the changing demographics of potential voters and I think RNC chair Ronna McDaniel must be losing sleep. 

(On the plus side, if Mr. Trump is deposed, Ms. McDaniel can go back to using her maiden name - Romney. Uncle Mitt will be pleased.)

But wait! I hear someone object. There's still a white majority of all potential voters. That's true, but keep in mind: more partisan voters are Democrats (35%) than Republican (25%).

Perhaps Ms. McDaniel isn't the only Republican who should have insomnia.


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