#TrumpShutdown May Have Cost GOP 2020

I am so glad we've ended the #TrumpShutdown. The havoc this numbskull move created and the damage it inflicted on Americans will be long-lasting and significant. The numbers we use to measure our economy may not shift much, but perhaps that's more a comment on the insensitivity of those measures to the personal effects of missing paychecks for a  month. Federal workers need their back pay as quickly as the checks can be written. The next obvious - and compassionate - move by government is to make those millions of government contractors whole, too. They were also hostages to the President's vanity.

So let's assume the Congress and the White House reach some accomodation in the next 21 days that prevents further imprudent behavior by the President and keeps government running. That won't include "the wall," of course, but some symbolic victory will have to be part of the final arrangement to appease the President's base, a vital political consideration for the Trump 2020 campaign.

But I'm wondering now if the #TrumpShutdown hasn't already cost the President re-election? This is a man, after all, who lost the popular vote in 2016, has been shadowed by the Mueller probe's relentless indictments and imprisonments, has publically sided with our adversaries, has shambled from one meaningless international gesture (moving our embassy to Jerusalem) to another (that hollow deal with North Korea) and generally behaved in a manner entirely inconsistent with the gravitas of his office.

And now the #TrumpShutdown has exposed his administration's indifference to the lives of Americans. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross's comments about furloughed workers getting loans and the President's childlike faith in the generosity of grocery stores perfectly distill the elitist nature of this Presidency. Republicans have long had to deal with charges of siding with big business over private citizens. The last 35 days have made the disconnect between the millionaires and billionaires in the highest levels of government and the citizens they purportedly serve even more dramatic.

As the economic impacts of the #TrumpShutdown reverberate in the coming months, Democrats will be certain to emphasize that disconnect even more. That's a powerful advantage they'll be certain to exploit. It's not difficult to see Donald Trump as the first President since G. H. W. Bush to serve a single term.

I KNEW This Seemed Familiar

Something about the President holding federal employees hostage in order to get a few billion dollars has nagged  at me for a few days. Something about threatening a third party to influence a decision had a deja vu quality I couldn't shake.

And then I realized where I'd seen it before:

Mr. Trump Just Put Amnesty on the Table

President Coulter isn't going to like this.

Annie Don't Like It

Bad news for Mr. Trump's wall "deal." The President doesn't like it.

Most Un-Self Conscious Tweet of the Day

Almost nobody in the W. H. but me...

Well, of course, sir - except for your unpaid Secret Service detail, a lot of your staff is at home reading Help Wanted ads.

The #TrumpShutdown Speeches Failed

Neither the President's first Oval Office prime time address nor the curiously moribund Democratic response impressed the public. But this polling does make it clear Trump is getting the bulk of the blame for the shutdown.

Applying Logic to Trump

David French is often a compelling conservative thinker. But he's used to dealing with politicians who behave rationally, or at least in their plain self-interest. Those are not qualities anyone should anticipate from the current president. In normal circumstances, this would be perfectly acceptable analysis:

If Trump reopens the government and declares an emergency, he’s actually caving creatively. Erick makes a similar point as Rich Lowry, who tweeted yesterday that “the national emergency isn’t a way to win the shutdown fight; it’s just a way to lose and shift the blame to the courts.” Trump knows that he faces long odds in court. He also knows he can go to his base and say, “I fought harder than anyone for the wall. I declared an emergency. No other Republican would have the guts to take things this far.”

Will Mr. Trump take the "caving creatively" route? Who knows. I do expect the Democrats to maintain their denial of wall funds, if for no other reason than to teach the President what divided government looks like.

In the meantime, 800,000 Americans are effectively unemployed, held hostage by the man who is their ultimate boss. His willingness to sacrifice those citizens is the worst aspect of this entire mess. And the most shameful.

About Half a Billion $$ in Housing Costs Are Due

Zillow reports $400 million in mortgage and rent payments are due this month from federal workers.

“Like Americans in the private sector, many federal employees rely on each and every paycheck to cover critical expenses, including housing,” Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas said in the report. “In many parts of the country, housing affordability is already stretched and a single missed payment can begin the long process toward foreclosure or eviction — which has long-term impacts on an individual’s finances and long-term economic prospects.”

Exit Strategy, Part 1.

It's no accident that Speaker Pelosi has committed to a term of no more than two years as the most powerful Democrat in America. It exactly mirrors the remainder of Donald Trump's first term. Acting as the most powerful woman in the world in opposition to the most powerful man must have been irresistible.

 In a warning sign for the White House, a number of Senate Republicans offered tepid support for the hard-line stance taken by Trump, who is backed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. While many Republicans said they'd continue to support McConnell and Trump for now, it was clear that support won't last indefinitely.

Historians Never Forget

How Can Any Trust Be Earned?

This is going to end badly, either for the 45th President, the 800,000 furloughed workers, or both.

But consider this: world leaders are watching the President renege on agreements negotiated at his direction, knowing the price of his repudiation of those agreements will be the financial ruin of his employees, and untold damage to the citizens who rely on the services those furloughed workers provide.

Why then would any government on the planet look to the Trump administration for partnership or assistance? We clearly cannot be trusted.